fy2011

Breaking news: It looks like the fiscal year 2011 closed with more revenue coming in than we estimated. Numbers are still being refined, but there is about $36 million more in revenue than estimated.

Fairfax readers will remember that for this analysis we generally look at the three largest funds: the Transportation Fund, the Education Fund and the General Fund. These three funds are blended together to get a picture of how the economy in our state is functioning.

It is early because the fiscal year just ended on June 30 and these figures will continue to be refined, but so far the Transportation Fund is below estimated revenue by $200,000. By looking inside the Transportation Fund we see that the Gasoline Tax was way down, but Purchase and Use Tax was up and made up for some of the shortfall. The Education Fund is up $600,000 because of Sales and Use Tax and Purchase and Use Tax. The General Fund is the most impressive mainly because of really strong Personal Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax revenues.

So as I exhale my sigh of relief, I'm trying to figure out what this means. Obviously people are starting to make money again because that shows in the increase in Personal Income Taxes and Corporate Income Taxes. People are spending some of their increased income because we can see it in increased Sales and Use taxes and Purchase and Use.

Is the recession over? Maybe, but keep it under your hat. Rooms and Meals taxes and Liquor taxes are not what they should be. It seems people are spending money on what they need, but no one is splurging. Certainly we can say that the revenue figures for fiscal 2011 were much better than I or anyone ever thought they'd be.

I'll report on new developments as needed. Contact me at cbranagan@leg.state.vt.us. I want to hear from you.

Rep. Carolyn Branagan
Franklin-1, Fairfax/Georgia
Vermont House of Representatives