half way point

[Carolyn Branagan]

The end of the calendar year is the halfway point in the state fiscal year. How do revenues look at this point? We’re holding our own.  Here’s some detail:

The three biggest funds are the General Fund, Education Fund and the Transportation Fund. The General Fund is nearly $17 million ahead of our estimate, with most of the overage coming from higher than expected revenue from the corporate income tax.

The Education Fund is pretty much right where we thought it would be. The good news is that the Tax Commissioner has recommended the statewide tax rates stay the same as this year: $.86 for homestead property and $1.35 for non-resident property. Decisions made at the local level, plus the CLA will add to these rates.

The Transportation Fund shows $1.2 million more than our estimates, mainly from additional DMV fees and the diesel tax.

Let me know if you'd like more information.
 

Rep. Carolyn Branagan

Franklin-1, Fairfax/Georgia

Vermont House of Representatives

[rod anode]

i thought we were millions behind the 8 ball how did this happen? or is that just how much debt we have

[Carolyn Branagan]

Well.......all things are relative. What I'm talking about is that the revenues are matching our guesstimates. We're still $112 million in the hole for FY2012. We've made so many changes in the budget, reducing estimates of revenue, that any gain seems like a victory to me. We're absolutely better off than a year ago.

The real problem is that the majority refuses to cut the expenditures to match the revenue. I think we're going to have to make  these cuts in the spring, because there just isn't any other way. No stimulus money to count on, no extra money pouring in from the feds. We're finally at reality where our appropriations are going to have to match our own revenue.

It's kind of like fighting a war, sometimes the battle fog clouds your  vision.

C.

[Thor]

The "fog of war" in Montpelier? There may be a haze, but it ain't from war! Should we all get excited that the reality of actual revenues are matching the guestimates, when in the end, we will still be $112 million in the hole? Maybe Shumlin has an in with Bernanke and he is just going to have the Fed print us our own batch of money to cover our debt. He can call it QE Vt. The system was obviously broken before. Sure glad we sent the same crew back in charge. Insanity - "doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Yup, that's us.

[rod anode]

i was gonna say our next govenor put us here i `m curious to see how he will get us out

[Thor]

Ed you know the deal, Shumlin will stroll in there, claim this "didn't happen on my watch" and then drag his feet while different commissions try to determine "what the next step is". When asked later what he is doing about things, he will respond "Well this whole problem has been handed down to me by the previous administration" and dance around the question. The next time he is asked, his reply will be "well just think how bad things would be if Brian Dubie had been elected". And he will then do one of two things. Stand there with his hand out and ask the folks from DC to help, or kick the can down the road to our kids, grandkids, and great grandkids.

[Thor]

Now with all that said.... I am waiting (with fingers crossed) that he will do something!! And they are the party in power, so we will see...

[mkr]

Carolyn thanks for the update and keeping us informed.  It is good to see improvement and hoping for it to continue. Every little step in the positive direction of reducing our debt is a small victory for sure!

[mirjo]

My son had a coach a long time ago who would rally the kids through every game by saying repeatedly "positive yardage, positive yardage!" to let them know that small gains were good as long as they continued moving the ball down the field with "positive yardage." They struggled, but they managed some wins and I think BFA has a strong team, because of those early years of the "positive yardage" mantra.

Peter Shumlin has yet to take office, there is no way to know what kind of Governor he's going to be--slamming his leadership before he actually leads is silly (at best) and ignorant (at worst), so maybe we should just wait and see what's going to happen, since nobody knows--except that it's not going to be pretty for awhile, because the state is in a fiscal mess.

There will be plenty of time to complain about bad choices and missteps when they occur! We have another political season that will be gearing up very soon on the national stage, then it will be starting again here in the state. 2012 isn't very far off... chances are someone will be running against Shumlin, so Thor and Ed, you will have your moment to vote in your favored party, if things are as bad as you predict they will be.

[Thor]

Like I said, my fingers are crossed. And to be honest, I hope I don't get the chance to say "I told you so". Of course, I wouldn't actually say that (or write it here) as that would be silly AND ignorant.

[cedarman]

"Peter Shumlin has yet to take office, there is no way to know what kind of Governor he's going to be--slamming his leadership before he actually leads is silly (at best) and ignorant (at worst), so maybe we should just wait and see what's going to happen, since nobody knows--except that it's not going to be pretty for awhile, because the state is in a fiscal mess."

I think judgements/assumptions about the type of governor he MIGHT be are based on his past performance in government leadership roles.  Unlike investment disclaimers about past performance does not guarantee future trends, I think when it comes to people (especially those who work themselves into high political offices), past performance is generally a very good indicator of what to expect in the future. Let us not forget, Shummy led the way in overturning Douglas's veto of a budget that didn't make much of an effort to match spending with projected revenue.

My guess, we'll see the "rainy day fund" dry up in the next year or two as the Dems hope previous years of savings will carry us through this "brief slump", and revenue will recover before they have to make serious cuts to pet programs.

[rod anode]

cant you comment on something i say without name calling or personal attacks ,just like weasel

[Thor]

Cedarman.... I just didn't even feel like heading down that road. The fact that Shumlin has had his hand in this since '92 wouldn't mean a thing here.

Ed... It has been a rough couple of days for ya! Don't get down though, as Mirjo stated, only a couple years til the 2012 election!

[mkr]

I do hope Shumlin does not carry on with his past ways, truly I do.  I have listened to my family member for years struggling to work with him and they are from his area and his actions were no actions, no responses, or choosed to do what he wanted not who voted for him.  So I will not be a Shumlin fan until he deserves a reason to be..... Sorry Mirjo, I do hope he changes his tune for sure but I cannot forget who he has been.